Chart: GSW vs Spline Method Overlays (Low/Median/High Correlation Dates)#

Chartbook page with GSW overlays against the spline methods for representative low/median/high-correlation dates.

Chart#

Sources: Federal Reserve Website

Full Screen Chart

replication_gsw_overlays#

The second sub-series of charts overlays all replication methods for selected dates representing the highest, lowest, and median levels of correlation between the Waggonner methods and the GSW curve. In this context, correlation is defined as the aggregate correlation between the fitted curves produced by the Waggonner methods and the GSW benchmark across maturities. These visual comparisons help illustrate when the alternative spline approaches closely track the benchmark curve and when the methods diverge more noticeably. Together, these charts provide an intuitive way to assess the similarities and differences across the yield curve estimation approaches beyond the numerical performance metrics presented in the replication tables.

For each method and date, we converted all curves to a common curve basis on maturity to ensure consistent comparisons. For the McCulloch method, we start from the saved discount curve and then derive the continuously compounded spot rate (spot_cc) and instantaneous forward rate (forward_instant_cc). For the Fisher and Waggonner methods, we start from the saved forward curve, treat it as forward_instant_cc, and numerically integrate to obtain discount curves before deriving spot_cc. We then construct the GSW curve for the same date and convert it to the same representations.

After interpolation to a shared maturity grid, we compute Pearson correlations by date, method, and curve type. We require at least three finite points and return NaN when either series is nearly constant. Finally, we average method-level correlations into a single overall_corr per date and select representative low/median/high-correlation dates.

Chart Specs#

Chart Name

GSW vs Spline Method Overlays (Low/Median/High Correlation Dates)

Chart ID

replication_gsw_overlays

Topic Tags

Data Series Start Date

Data Frequency

Observation Period

Lag in Data Release

Data Release Timing

Seasonal Adjustment

Units

HTML Chart

HTML

Dataframe Manifest#

Dataframe Name

Fed Yield Curve All

Dataframe ID

fed_yield_curve_all

Data Sources

Federal Reserve Website

Data Providers

Public

Links to Providers

Topic Tags

Type of Data Access

How is data pulled?

Pulled directly from Fed Website and stored

Data available up to (min)

Data available up to (max)

Dataframe Path

/Users/phoebefingold/FINM_Repo/FINM_32900/p14_gurkaynak_sack_wright_2007/_data/fed_yield_curve_all.parquet

Linked Charts:

Pipeline Manifest#

Pipeline Name

p14_us_treasury_yield_curve_construction_and_model_comparison

Pipeline ID

P1

Lead Pipeline Developer

Phoebe Fingold, Annie Reynolds

Contributors

Phoebe Fingold, Annie Reynolds

Git Repo URL

Pipeline Web Page

Pipeline Web Page

Date of Last Code Update

2026-03-11 00:04:57

OS Compatibility

Linked Dataframes

P1:crsp_treasury_daily_prices
P1:crsp_treasury_issue_info
P1:crsp_treasury_consolidated
P1:fed_yield_curve_all
P1:fed_yield_curve